{"id":1003,"date":"2021-01-17T23:36:25","date_gmt":"2021-01-17T22:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/?p=1003"},"modified":"2021-01-17T23:48:51","modified_gmt":"2021-01-17T22:48:51","slug":"une-variable-explicative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/?p=1003","title":{"rendered":"Une variable explicative?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Je regardais, \u00e0 la t\u00e9l\u00e9vision, les images de l’invasion du Capitole. Et j’ai remarqu\u00e9 que, \u00e0 de rares exceptions pr\u00e8s, les malfaiteurs \u00e9taient tous tr\u00e8s gros, quel que soit le groupuscule auquel ils appartenaient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je suis donc aller chercher sur Wikipedia des chiffres sur l’ob\u00e9sit\u00e9 aux \u00c9tats-Unis, \u00ab\u00a0Obesity Rate by State 2020\u00a0\u00bb<\/a> (worldpopulationreview.com<\/em>. Retrieved\u00a0March 14,2020)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

J’ai r\u00e9cup\u00e9r\u00e9 le tableau, je n’ai eu qu’\u00e0 rajouter une colonne avec les r\u00e9sultats de la pr\u00e9sidentielle de novembre 2020, et ensuite, \u00e0 trier les 50 Etats, et le district f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, bien s\u00fbr, dans l’ordre croissant du taux d’adultes ob\u00e8ses en 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Etat<\/strong><\/td>Adultes ob\u00e8ses 2000<\/strong><\/td>Adults ob\u00e8ses 2020<\/strong><\/td>Pr\u00e9sidentielle 2020<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Colorado<\/td>21.0%<\/td>22.6%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
District of Columbia<\/td>22.1%<\/td>23.0%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Hawaii<\/td>20.7%<\/td>23.8%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
California<\/td>23.1%<\/td>25.1%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Montana<\/td>21.7%<\/td>25.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Utah<\/td>21.8%<\/td>25.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
New York<\/td>23.5%<\/td>25.7%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Massachusetts<\/td>20.9%<\/td>25.9%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Nevada<\/td>23.6%<\/td>26.7%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Connecticut<\/td>20.8%<\/td>26.9%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
New Jersey<\/td>22.9%<\/td>27.3%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Vermont<\/td>21.1%<\/td>27.6%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Washington<\/td>24.5%<\/td>27.7%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
New Hampshire<\/td>23.6%<\/td>28.1%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Florida<\/td>23.3%<\/td>28.4%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Minnesota<\/td>24.8%<\/td>28.4%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
New Mexico<\/td>23.3%<\/td>28.4%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Wyoming<\/td>24.0%<\/td>28.8%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Maine<\/td>23.7%<\/td>29.1%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Idaho<\/td>24.6%<\/td>29.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Oregon<\/td>25.0%<\/td>29.4%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Arizona<\/td>23.3%<\/td>29.5%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Rhode Island<\/td>21.4%<\/td>30.0%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Virginia<\/td>25.2%<\/td>30.1%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Illinois<\/td>25.3%<\/td>31.1%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Maryland<\/td>25.2%<\/td>31.3%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Georgia<\/td>27.5%<\/td>31.6%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Pennsylvania<\/td>25.7%<\/td>31.6%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Delaware<\/td>25.9%<\/td>31.8%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
South Dakota<\/td>26.1%<\/td>31.9%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Wisconsin<\/td>25.5%<\/td>32.0%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
North Carolina<\/td>27.1%<\/td>32.1%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Michigan<\/td>27.7%<\/td>32.3%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Kansas<\/td>25.8%<\/td>32.4%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Missouri<\/td>27.4%<\/td>32.5%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Nebraska<\/td>26.5%<\/td>32.8%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Tennessee<\/td>29.0%<\/td>32.8%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Texas<\/td>27.2%<\/td>33.0%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
North Dakota<\/td>25.9%<\/td>33.2%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Indiana<\/td>27.5%<\/td>33.6%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Ohio<\/td>26.9%<\/td>33.8%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
South Carolina<\/td>29.2%<\/td>34.1%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Alaska<\/td>27.3%<\/td>34.2%<\/td>Biden<\/td><\/tr>
Kentucky<\/td>28.4%<\/td>34.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Arkansas<\/td>28.1%<\/td>35.0%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Louisiana<\/td>29.5%<\/td>36.2%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Alabama<\/td>30.1%<\/td>36.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Iowa<\/td>26.3%<\/td>36.4%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Oklahoma<\/td>28.1%<\/td>36.5%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
Mississippi<\/td>34.4%<\/td>37.3%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr>
West Virginia<\/td>30.6%<\/td>38.1%<\/td>Trump<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Le r\u00e9sultat ne m’a pas \u00e9tonn\u00e9, je le reconnais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au comptoir du caf\u00e9 du commerce, nous aurions entendu \u00ab\u00a0Les \u00e9lecteurs de Biden ne go\u00fbtent pas les plaisirs de la vie, ils sont vegans\u00a0\u00bb, ou \u00ab\u00a0Trump a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9lu par des gros c\u2026\u00a0\u00bb. Mais nous ne sommes pas sur Facebook, il faut donc chercher une autre explication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne ne d\u00e9pend pas de l’autre (enfin, je pense\u2026), il n’y a pas corr\u00e9lation, mais covariation, avec donc une variable commune (ou plusieurs) qui explique la chose. Mais laquelle?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les sociologues posent le plus souvent l’hypoth\u00e8se que l’ob\u00e9sit\u00e9 est li\u00e9e avec deux caract\u00e9ristiques de la population, le faible niveau d’instruction d’une part, le faible niveau de revenu d’autre part. Sans faire l’impasse, bien s\u00fbr, sur le lien entre les deux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais comme on retrouve chez les partisans de Trump d’une part des travailleurs pauvres (ou des pauvres sans travail) et d’autre part des complotistes de tout acabit (quel que soit le complot, d’ailleurs), il se peut que le taux d’ob\u00e9sit\u00e9 soit finalement une sorte de synth\u00e8se des deux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n
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<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In thick we trust<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.pallarea.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/malfaiteurscapitole.jpg?fit=1280%2C871&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1003"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1020,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003\/revisions\/1020"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1013"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pallarea.fr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}